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10:16, 24 May 2026
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Russian Scientists Develop Neural Network to Improve Arctic Storm Forecasts

Researchers from several Russian scientific centers have developed a neural network system called BERTUNet that significantly improves forecasts of dangerous weather conditions in the Arctic.

Photo: naked-science.ru

Global weather models share a common weakness: they smooth out small atmospheric vortices and temperature anomalies, precisely the phenomena responsible for sudden storms, including polar cyclones and the Novaya Zemlya bora wind. BERTUNet addresses large-scale forecasting errors while intentionally preserving small vortex structures.

“Results showed that the original surface temperature error in some cases was nearly 5 degrees. The new neural network reduced that figure to 2.1 degrees. Wind speed forecast error fell by about 20%,” said Viktor Golikov, a researcher at the Skoltech Artificial Intelligence Center. “At the same time, the energy of small atmospheric vortices in the corrected forecast remained at the level of the original high-resolution model, whereas conventional correction methods completely suppressed these structures.”

The system is primarily designed to improve safety along the Northern Sea Route, as well as aviation operations and resource extraction projects in the Arctic region. Researchers from the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, MIPT, Skoltech and AIRI participated in developing the platform.


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