Smart Calculations for the Energy Sector of the Future: A New Methodology Is Changing the Approach to Regional Gasification
Neural networks will help support more informed investment decisions in Russia's energy sector. At Novosibirsk State Technical University NETI, researchers are developing a methodology that will evaluate the conversion of coal-fired power plants to natural gas based not only on fuel costs, but also on the impact on equipment reliability, environmental performance, and social factors.
Graduate researcher Pavel Evseenko of Novosibirsk State Technical University NETI (NSTU NETI) is working to improve the methodology for preparing Fuel and Energy Balances (FEBs) to increase the level of gasification across Russian regions. Forecast FEBs are currently prepared using a methodology approved by the Russian Ministry of Energy in 2021. Under that framework, the potential conversion of thermal power plants from coal to natural gas is evaluated using a simplified model focused primarily on the CHP plant owner's costs. According to Evseenko, this approach overlooks a wide range of indirect technical, economic, and social effects.
The author of the new methodology argues that particular attention should be paid to evaluating plant parameters and operating modes after modernization, or when selecting equipment for new generating facilities. It is also necessary to assess how a change in fuel affects the electrical operating modes and balances of the entire power system. Preliminary assessments, for example, suggest that fuel type has a measurable impact on equipment reliability. Gas-fired generation experiences significantly fewer equipment failures than coal-fired generation.
Evseenko is now analyzing large datasets using neural networks and other digital tools. The resulting findings will be used to develop practical recommendations and prepare FEBs aimed at increasing gasification levels across Russia's regions.
Fuel and Energy Balances for Siberia and the Far East
In the future, the NSTU NETI researcher's work could provide the basis for updating the Ministry of Energy's methodology. More accurate and objective FEB calculations could be used when developing projects to convert coal-fired generation to natural gas. That is particularly important for Siberia and the Russian Far East, where coal accounts for a large share of electricity generation. Across Russia as a whole, coal produces about 15% of electricity, while in these regions its share reaches as high as 47%.
A dedicated software module may also be developed for use by regional authorities and energy companies. After entering the parameters of a specific power plant and its local power system, users would be able to compare multiple modernization scenarios for existing generating assets.
From Regulations to Research
The work being carried out at NSTU NETI represents the logical continuation of Russia's ongoing effort to improve energy planning.
In 2021, the Russian Ministry of Energy adopted Order No. 1169, establishing the rules for preparing actual and forecast Fuel and Energy Balances (FEBs) for regions and municipalities. Although the procedure was revised in 2024, the methodology for evaluating inter-fuel competition remained largely simplified.
Practical experience has since demonstrated the need for a more comprehensive approach. For example, Vladivostok CHP-2 was converted to natural gas in 2022. That project showed that changing fuel sources requires consideration not only of environmental benefits, but also equipment modernization, the availability of sufficient gas infrastructure, and changes in operating modes following reconstruction.
Since 2025, Pavel Evseenko has actively participated in specialized scientific and industry conferences and has co-authored research papers that establish the scientific foundation for improving the current FEB methodology.
More Accurate Modeling Instead of Simplified Assumptions
The research underway at NSTU NETI is expected to bridge the gap between simplified economic calculations and the real-world consequences of changing fuel sources for CHP plants and regional power systems. A unified model will combine economic, technical, environmental, and statistical data.
Before any changes are introduced into the existing methodology for preparing forecast FEBs, however, the results will need to be validated using a broader sample of existing generating units and incorporated into real-world modernization case studies.
In the future, this work could lead to the creation of a digital system capable of modeling the development of regional energy systems. Such a platform could prove valuable not only in Russia, but also in other countries considering the conversion of coal-fired power plants to natural gas.
